ID has largely been done to death on this blog. If you believe in it, stop now, because you'll find my "ignorance" insurmountable (
and besides, I've blasphemed the Holy Spirit and am therefore beyond redemption, so please just go away). Nonetheless, dead horse though ID is, I ran across something sufficiently interesting as to merit discussion: a fatal refutation of Paley's "watchmaker" thesis (the one underlying ID). In a nutshell, the idea of Paley's thesis is that there's no way all this stuff just coalesced out of stardust and thinking apes evolved to attribute bad poetry to Vogons, so therefore Vogon poetry must therefore have been the will of God.
Here is
DangerMouse's succinct tongue-in-cheek destruction of Paley's thesis, under the aegis of informatics (
computer-science):
Intelligent Design Sort
Introduction
Intelligent design sort is a sorting algorithm based on the theory of intelligent design.
Algorithm Description
The probability of the original input list being in the exact order it's in is 1/(n!). There is such a small likelihood of this that it's clearly absurd to say that this happened by chance, so it must have been consciously put in that order by an intelligent Sorter. Therefore it's safe to assume that it's already optimally Sorted in some way that transcends our naïve mortal understanding of "ascending order". Any attempt to change that order to conform to our own preconceptions would actually make it less sorted.
Analysis
This algorithm is constant in time, and sorts the list in-place, requiring no additional memory at all. In fact, it doesn't even require any of that suspicious technological computer stuff. Praise the Sorter!
Ok, my usual sarcasm aside, the baseline premise is simple: that ultra-low probability events are occurring all the time and we don't object to them, so why should we object to Darwinian evolution on that basis when there's so much supporting evidence? An example of such an ultra-low probability event would be winning the lottery. But wait, one may object, sure, winning the lottery isn't likely, but in the grand scheme of things, that's child's play compared to the probabilities of quasars, plum pudding and "Reptiles and Samurai", no?
So, here's a simple thought experiment:
- take a big sack and put in 1000 differently-marked tiles
- draw out one tile at a time, arranging the tiles in a line
- continue until the bag is empty.
The odds of the tiles coming out in whatever order they will have emerged are exactly:
1 in 402,387,260,077,093,773,543,702,433,923,003,985,719,374,864,210,714,632,
543,799,910,429,938,512,398,629,020,592,044,208,486,969,404,800,479,988,610,
197,196,058,631,666,872,994,808,558,901,323,829,669,944,590,997,424,504,087,073,
759,918,823,627,727,188,732,519,779,505,950,995,276,120,874,975,462,497,043,601,
418,278,094,646,496,291,056,393,887,437,886,487,337,119,181,045,825,783,647,849,
977,012,476,632,889,835,955,735,432,513,185,323,958,463,075,557,409,114,262,417,
474,349,347,553,428,646,576,611,667,797,396,668,820,291,207,379,143,853,719,588,
249,808,126,867,838,374,559,731,746,136,085,379,534,524,221,586,593,201,928,090,
878,297,308,431,392,844,403,281,231,558,611,036,976,801,357,304,216,168,747,609,
675,871,348,312,025,478,589,320,767,169,132,448,426,236,131,412,508,780,208,000,
261,683,151,027,341,827,977,704,784,635,868,170,164,365,024,153,691,398,281,264,810
,213,092,761,244,896,359,928,705,114,964,975,419,909,342,221,566,832,572,080,821,333
,186,116,811,553,615,836,546,984,046,708,975,602,900,950,537,616,475,847,728,421,889
,679,646,244,945,160,765,353,408,198,901,385,442,487,984,959,953,319,101,723,355,
556,602,139,450,399,736,280,750,137,837,615,307,127,761,926,849,034,352,625,200,015
,888,535,147,331,611,702,103,968,175,921,510,907,788,019,393,178,114,194,545,257,223,
865,541,461,062,892,187,960,223,838,971,476,088,506,276,862,967,146,674,697,562,911,
234,082,439,208,160,153,780,889,893,964,518,263,243,671,616,762,179,168,909,779,911,
903,754,031,274,622,289,988,005,195,444,414,282,012,187,361,745,992,642,956,581,746,
628,302,955,570,299,024,324,153,181,617,210,465,832,036,786,906,117,260,158,783,520,
751,516,284,225,540,265,170,483,304,226,143,974,286,933,061,690,897,968,482,590,125,
458,327,168,226,458,066,526,769,958,652,682,272,807,075,781,391,858,178,889,652,208,
164,348,344,825,993,266,043,367,660,176,999,612,831,860,788,386,150,279,465,955,131,
156,552,036,093,988,180,612,138,558,600,301,435,694,527,224,206,344,631,797,460,594,
682,573,103,790,084,024,432,438,465,657,245,014,402,821,885,252,470,935,190,620,929,
023,136,493,273,497,565,513,958,720,559,654,228,749,774,011,413,346,962,715,422,845,
862,377,387,538,230,483,865,688,976,461,927,383,814,900,140,767,310,446,640,259,899,
490,222,221,765,904,339,901,886,018,566,526,485,061,799,702,356,193,897,017,860,040,
811,889,729,918,311,021,171,229,845,901,641,921,068,884,387,121,855,646,124,960,798,
722,908,519,296,819,372,388,642,614,839,657,382,291,123,125,024,186,649,353,143,970,
137,428,531,926,649,875,337,218,940,694,281,434,118,520,158,014,123,344,828,015,051,
399,694,290,153,483,077,644,569,099,073,152,433,278,288,269,864,602,789,864,321,139,
083,506,217,095,002,597,389,863,554,277,196,742,822,248,757,586,765,752,344,220,207,
573,630,569,498,825,087,968,928,162,753,848,863,396,909,959,826,280,956,121,450,994,
871,701,244,516,461,260,379,029,309,120,889,086,942,028,510,640,182,154,399,457,156,
805,941,872,748,998,094,254,742,173,582,401,063,677,404,595,741,785,160,829,230,135,
358,081,840,096,996,372,524,230,560,855,903,700,624,271,243,416,909,004,153,690,105,
933,983,835,777,939,410,970,027,753,472,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
That likelihood is so astonishingly close to zero that you may as well conclude that you didn't do it, because it's just too mind bogglingly small a probability to think that it could have possibly happened. A probability like that might as well be the definition of impossible. No sane mind can possibly comprehend such an improbability. Honestly, physicists aren't entirely sure there are that many distinct countable things in the universe.
That's not only the crux, but also the sovereign flaw, of Paley's teleological argument. When it comes down to it, of course the mind boggles at the idea that all this stuff just happened! But that doesn't mean that it didn't just happen. What it means is that our puny minds aren't up to comprehending it, so we invent a nice placeholder by "factoring out the boggle" and calling it God, inventing some comforting and/or threatening stories depending on where you sit on the spectrum between Bishop Spong & John Knox
, and going away secure in the knowledge that you can ponder the universe without your brain exploding. It's the exact equivalent to working with a class of nonsense numbers that can't possibly mean anything much less exist, so long as you remember to write a little cursive "
i" next to them. Thanks to religion, so long as you remember to always keep God in the equation, you can go on about your business confident that everything makes sense, or, if it doesn't make sense, that at least it isn't utterly and incomprehensibly absurd.
Much more potent to argue that the Christian commandments lead to a nicer world (hint: they do) than to argue that it's impossible that the world could be the way it is randomly.
