A much needed breather

Everyone's busy arguing over whether we're going to have a "V" shaped recovery or a "W" shaped recovery (or an "L" shaped recovery). I've no greater clue than anyone else, but regardless of how it falls out, the similarity of our situation to that of Japan in the previous decade augurs for a double-dip at least, before anything long-run-positive occurs. If the boffins are right and we're going to have a rallying economy for the next year or so before the double-dip danger really rears its head, then this presents a much needed breather for households to repair their balance sheets and maybe accrue some savings. A second dip would likely be more violent than the first, as the "true disbelievers" would have all been shaken out by then, so savings cushions will be critical -- I don't know what the macro trend is looking like, but we're doing exactly what the average Japanese consumer did in the '90s: welding our wallets shut. Sure, it was bad for their retail sector and will be awful for ours (with commercial real estate to fall right on it's heels), but with baseline unemployment running 16%, deflation rampant and with equal risks of stag-disinflation and stagflation to follow, who cares?

But I'll take the breather.