Rita
update: From Dr. Jeff Master's blog on the Weather Underground (believe it or not, they're still around!)The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.
7 comments:
good lord, look at that well-defined eye. This thing is spinning *fast.*
It would be a deluge, yes, but the bright side of that is that Dallas, unlike a lot of areas, is equipped with some very serious levees. In dry weather I can go hang out at the levee and shoot my war bow in any direction I want, with nearly zero chance of hitting anything I might care about.
In Irving, now of somewhat more interest to your weather forecasts (grin), there would be definite flash-floods (this is usual), and at 10 inches, one would expect moderate levee activity. Once you're past a foot and a half, most of Irving will drain okay, due to the presence of significant nearby wetlands, and the fact that our area lakes are an average of five inches low at the moment.
Nobody handles 30 inches of rain without flooding: 30 inches *is* flooding... but that depends on whether it's 30 inches in one day, or five.... In the former case, the neighborhood we're in is one of the highest elevations in Irving, and should drain without too much difficulty. Given our levees, the latter is no worry.
Yeah, I went & checked & you & I are at about 580 feet elevation, whereas Irving's official elevation is 470 feet. But nonetheless, it could make getting groceries a wee bit inconvenient. The current forecast shows the storm going more northwards, so that's probably ok. Just more misery for La.
It's looking like a non-event for Dallas as it stands... just rain.
cat-3 now, and mostly into far East Texas/West Louisiana. We should only get clouds and some rain outta Rita over in DFW.
-- Rufel
lotta breeze, lotta clouds, no rain... dangit.
Now I have to water the yard...
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