If you're a peak oil enthusiast and a geo-politics spectator, then the following article is highly recommended bathroom reading. The basic gyst is that in 30 years or less when oil becomes a crisis, since we've got bases everywhere that protect our oil needs (at current consumption rates), the new uber-user of oil, China, will need to get theirs from somewhere. And there's really only one big producer of oil that we're not defending -- the great bear of the north. And here's where my favorite hobby-horse, the petrodollar overvaluation of USD comes in. In order to succeed, the Chinese dump our currency, thereby putting us in a deep recession or worse just when Russia needs the help (the great irony being that the petrodollar was why we won the cold war in the first place).
Yup, excellent bathroom reading.
(ps. yes, I know the site is run by moonbats -- it's still interesting reading)
6 comments:
Good bathroom reading, but it comes with several serious difficulties:
1. It's a static analysis, not taking into account what, if Peak Oil is real, will definitely be a full-speed ahead market for FTdiesel, etcetera.
2. It ignores the actual position of the Chinese government, which is aware of the oil squeeze, and has spent big money looking for alternatives, in the realization that oil-dependence guarantees war.
3. It assumes that Russia is still not adequately funding its military, an assumption that increasingly is out of date as Russia is able to spend its petrodollars on its military forces... similarly, it posits China's ability to beat down said forces, when China is itself unable to even develop a modern automobile w/o foreign assistance (as of right now, it's literally importing an entire factory, having admitted that it cannot develop one). Recall that by 2030 China will be in much the same age fix as Japan is in now.
4. Given the existence of a large FTdiesel market and Albertan oil sands, etcetera... peak oil actually is a scenario that places us in a position to be one of the world's primary energy EXPORTERS, rather than importers -- in those circumstances,a shift to the euro is unlikely, compared to simply redeeming said dollars for energy.
All true, but, similarly, China will be facing massive economic and social pressures with all of that happening, and the traditional way to deal with that is to unify the home front by sending the yahoos out somewhere else.
I also don't see better diesel and the like as able to help too much w/ China's appetite for fuel, even though they're working on all these alternatives. Did you know that China is importing & using as much concrete as the rest of the world combined right now? It's fuel expenditures are absolutely enormous, and will dwarf ours in short order.
Yeah, Jim, but you don't handle the situation by engaging in conquest when **your society is greying.** Most young folks will be busting their asses simply trying to help older folks survive, as a consequence of the one-child policy. It will be one middle-aged guy to four elderly parents and (depending on longevity) up to eight grandparents. Them's some seriously scary numbers.
1:4 ?! Ouch -- they may end up rethinking the one-child policy after all.
They've started to already. But the fact that many people cheated, and peasants and ethnic minorities were often allowed exceptions, may be the only thing that saves China's soon-to-be-elderly from a truly miserable old age.
Sorry, messed up my numbers: It'll be 1-2-4. So, given that longevity is up in China (a good thing) outside of pollution illnesses and cancers, it'll be one kid per two parents, and a percentage of the surviving grandparents. Of course, said kid will be early-to-mid middle ages himself. So anywhere from 1-2 to 1-6.
Oh, and most of those 2-6 will be VASTLY less employable than our parents and grandparents, as they'll be aged unskilled workers.
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